丹江口水库径流长期预报研究

应用时间序列分析方法，建立了丹江口水库径流序列的长期预报分解模型；采用多种方法对序列特性（如平稳、趋势、周期等）进行了检验，深入讨论了序列周期的稳定性和外推性。计算成果表明所提模型是合理的．

Research on Long-term Runoff Forecast of Danjiangkou Reservoir

With the application of time series analysis method, the decomPOsed model of long--termrunoff forecasting of Danjiangkou reservoir is set up. several methods are used to test features (e.g. stableness, trend, period) of the series, stableness and extensionality of the periods of the series are discuSSed deeply. The result of calculation shows that the model is reasonable.