网络安全态势预测及其在智能防护中的应用

针对智能安全防护系统这一特殊应用,提出了一种以灰色GM(1,1)为原型,以Markov链为误差校正的新型网络安全态势预测算法。首先,对网络安全态势进行量化建模,通过GM(1,1)预测模型拟合网络安全态势预测曲线,然后通过真实值曲线与预测曲线之间对比建立Markov偏移概率矩阵,得到平均偏移百分比,从而对原预测值进行误差校正。实验证明：该方法预测结果与真实值较为接近,能较好地体现态势值的趋势性和波动性,且计算量小,适合智能防护中的应用。

Network security status forecasting and its application in intelligent defense

Concerning the application of network security status prediction to Intelligent Security Defense Software (ISDS),this paper introduced a new prediction algorithm based on GM(1,1) and Markov models.Firstly,the GM(1,1) model was used to predict the original status value.Then,the Markov model was used for error compensation.And the simulation experiment proves that this prediction algorithm is good at status prediction and suitable for intelligent defense application.