江苏沿海地区淡水资源水生态足迹的动态变化

应用生态足迹理论与方法，采用淡水资源的输入与输出统计数据，对江苏沿海地区1990年以后的淡水生态足迹变化趋势进行建模分析。结果显示：最大的消费体为农业，其次为家畜行业，农业、家畜、水产业、食品烟草业等总的淡水生态足迹是其他行业的6倍；2004年江苏沿海地区淡水资源的总水生态足迹为3．04×10um^3；农业、食品和烟草业、纺织业、电力、供气和供水等具有较大的淡水消耗强度；金属矿藏、皮革、木材加工、造纸、冶炼等具有较小的水资源消耗强度。应用时间序列模型ARIMA（2，2，2）预测江苏沿海地区淡水资源2010-2015年间人均水生态足迹分别为761．38，770．65，775．89，788．45，798．17，815．86m^3，人均水生态足迹呈现逐年上升态势。

Dynamic Changes of Freshwater Ecological Footprints in Jiangsu Coastal Area

The ecological footprint theory and the input-output calculation method provide a useful tool to quantitatively analyze the data of input-output freshwater resource. We calculated the wa- ter ecological footprint （WEF） of Jiangsu coastal area and analyzed its change tendency after 1990. The results showed that the total freshwater ecological footprint of agriculture, livestock, fishery, food products and tobacco processing were 6 times those of other sectors;the largest consumer was agriculture, and the second largest, livestock. The total freshwater ecological footprint of Jiangsu coastal area was 3.04 × 1011 m^3 in 2004. Agriculture, food products and to- bacco processing, textile goods, electricity, gas and water production and supply had the biggest freshwater consumption intensity, while mining, leather products, sawmills and furniture, paper and metal smelting and products were smaller in intensity. ARIMA （2, 2, 2） was used to predict WEF of Jiangsu coastal area from 2010 to 2015, and the results are 761.38, 770.65, 775.89, 788.45, 798.17, 815.86 m^3 , respectively. The predicted result keeps a sharp upward tendency.