Trial application of ASHRAE 1051-RP: calibration method for building energy simulation

ASHRAE research project 1051-RP generated a method to improve the process of calibrating whole building energy simulation models based on monthly utility data. The approach, using manual generation of simulation model variations, was applied to a 12,000 m² high-performance, dual energy, cold climate building. This led to 27 models that met the ASHRAE Guideline 14 monthly goodness-of-fit criteria for electricity, but had fit values for gas that were about 5–7 times the normalized mean bias error (NMBE) acceptance threshold. Five models met the criteria for natural gas and had acceptable coefficient of variation of the root-mean-square error for electricity, but NMBE was about 100% too high. Use of finer interval monitored data yielded a model with electrical NMBE about 60% above the acceptance threshold, and gas use about 200% above. Hourly analysis of the thermal energy demand on the plant showed wide discrepancies with the estimates on an hourly and half daily basis.