黑河上游水文气象要素变化规律分析

为揭示气候变化对干旱地区水文气象要素的影响，在对黑河上游莺落峡站以上地区1960~2010年平均气温、年平均径流、年平均日照时数、年降水及年平均相对湿度资料进行线性趋势分析的基础上，采用M-K非参数统计检验对其显著性进行判断，运用小波变换探讨了各序列的多时间尺度变化特征，并采用R/S法分析了流域各序列的持续性，估算各项指标的Hurst指数以定量估计未来序列的变化趋势。结果表明，该地区降水、气温和径流均呈上升趋势，相对湿度和日照时数均呈下降趋势；径流、降水、相对湿度和日照时数具有一致的主周期和次周期；黑河上游径流成分由降雨和融雪径流组成，同时受降雨和气温的影响。

Regularity Analysis of Hydrometeorological Elements in Upstream of Heihe Basin

In order to study the influence of climate change on the hydrometeorological elements, the trends of average annual runoff, sunshine hours, precipitation, relative humidity and temperature in the upper reaches of the Heihe River are analyzed by using linear trend analysis, and its significance are tested by M-K method. And then the multi time scales changes of these sequences are discussed by using wavelet transform. At the same time, its persistence is analyzed with the R/S method and future variation trends are predicted by Hurst exponent of the various indicators. The results show that the precipitation, temperature and runoff have upward trends, relative humidity and sunshine hours appear downward trends; runoff, precipitation, relative humidity and sunshine hours have a consistent master cycle and sub period; the runoff components of the Heihe River is composes of precipitation and snowmelt runoff, which influences by the rainfall and air temperature.