基于VAR模型的人力资本与出口贸易增长的关系分析

运用协整和VAR模型从人力资本角度分析其对我国出口贸易额的动态影响,结果表明:人力资本是出口贸易增长的Granger原因,他们之间存在长期的动态稳定关系。脉冲响应分析揭示人力资本对出口额有稳定持续的正的产出弹性,方差分解显示人力资本对出口的贡献占60%多。因此国家必须加大人力资本投资,增加人力资本存量,发挥其内部和外部效应,起到促进出口健康、持续增长的作用。

Relationship analysis between hunmn capital and export trade growth based on VAR model

Cointegration and VAR model are used to analyse the dynamic implication that human captial has on China trade.The results show that human capital is the Granger factor of trade increasement,there exists long-term dynamic stability between them.The impluse response reveals that human capital has stable and continuous positive output flexibility to export,the square deviation decomposition shows that the human capital accounts for 60% of export.Therefore,the nation must increase human capital investment,add human resource storage,exert its internal and external effects,to promte healthy and sustainable increasement of export.