| 二滩水电站日平均流量预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴世勇,马光文,刘媛媛,练继建. 二滩水电站日平均流量预测[J]. 水利水电技术, 2005, 36(11): 11-14 |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴世勇 马光文 刘媛媛 练继建 |
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| 作者单位： | 四川大学,水利水电工程学院,四川,成都,610065;二滩水电开发有限责任公司,四川,成都,610021;四川大学,水利水电工程学院,四川,成都,610065;天津大学,建筑工程学院,天津,300072 |
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| 摘 要： | 分别利用分期平稳自回归模型——AR模型（Autoregressive Model）和BP人工神经网络模型（Back Propagation Artifical Neural Network Model）对二滩水电站的日平均流量序列进行了预测.通过计算可知,分期平稳回归模型和人工神经网络模型都可以很好的解决日平均径流的预测问题,误差都比较小.但分期平稳回归模型计算繁琐,不能及时、快速得到计算结果,而人工神经网络模型计算快速,占用内存小,还有很好的容错性,在数据不完全的情况下,也能及时准确地得到径流预报值.
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| 关 键 词： | 流量预测 AR模型 BP人工神经网络模型 二滩水电站 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-0860(2005)11-0011-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-01-20 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-01-20 |
Prediction of mean daily discharge of Ertan Hydropower Station |
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| WU Shi-yong,MA Guang-wen,LIU Yuan-yuan,LIAN Ji-jian. Prediction of mean daily discharge of Ertan Hydropower Station[J]. Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, 2005, 36(11): 11-14 |
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| Authors: | WU Shi-yong MA Guang-wen LIU Yuan-yuan LIAN Ji-jian |
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| Affiliation: | 1. College of Hydropower Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, Sichuan, China; 2. Ertan Hydropower Development Company Ltd., Chengdu 610021, Sichuan, China; 3. School of Civil Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China |
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| Abstract: | The AR(Autoregressive Model)and the BP Artifical Neural Network Model are respectively used to predict the mean daily discharge of Ertan Hydropower Station herein.It is known from the calculation concerned that,the problems from the prediction can be solved by both the AR Model and the BP Artifical Neural Network Model with less errors.However,the calculated process of the AR Model is too complicated to solve the problems in time,whereas the BP Artifical Neural Network Model can give the result quickly even under the condition with incomplete data. |
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| Keywords: | discharge prediction AR Model BP Artifical Neural Network Model Ertan Hydropower Station |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
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