行业视角下中国对外贸易隐含碳排放研究

贸易隐含碳测算是调整进出口贸易结构、提高资源利用率、实现低碳经济的重要依据。基于多区域投入产出法,构建行业层面的双边贸易隐含碳测算模型,采用1997-2011年WIOD提供的相关数据,测算中国与美国、德国、日本、韩国、澳大利亚、俄罗斯、印度、巴西8个主要贸易国双边贸易隐含碳净排放量。研究表明:在中国与美国、德国、日本、韩国、澳大利亚的双边贸易中,主要为行业隐含碳净出口;在与俄罗斯、印度、巴西的双边贸易中,行业隐含碳净出口和净进口现象并存。通常情况下,中国采取以碳排放换取贸易顺差、以贸易逆差换取碳减排的贸易策略。为了减少隐含碳排放,中国应该推行碳排放交易市场,整顿高污染行业,优化进出口贸易结构,鼓励增加高碳行业的进口量和低碳行业的出口量。

INDUSTRIAL VIEWS ON HIDDEN CARBON EMISSION OF CHINA'S EXTERNAL TRADING

Carbon estimation hidden in trading is a vital basis for adjusting import/export trading, improving resources use rate and realizing low carbon economy. This paper uses multiple regional input/output to establish a hidden carbon estimation model for bilateral trading from the perspective of industry. It is applied to estimate the net hidden carbon emission between China's bilateral trading with America, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Russia, India and Brazil by means of WIOD's data from 1997 to 2011, with results showing a net hidden carbon import in bilateral trading between China and America, Germany, Japan and South Korea, a coexisting net carbon import & export between China and Russia, India and Brazil. China generally uses a trading strategy of exchanging carbon emission reduction for trading surplus and exchanging trading deficit for carbon emission reduction. In order to reduce hidden carbon emission, this paper suggests China shall set up carbon emission trading market, consolidate high pollution industries, optimize import/export trading structure and promote imports of high carbon industries and exports of low carbon industries.