我国燃料乙醇原料可持续供应初步分析

本文通过评价我国粮食供应形势、土地资源、农业生产的特点,资源禀赋等,对我国燃料乙醇原料供应进行了初步分析。我国人多地少,耕地资源紧缺,粮食供需处于紧平衡,以玉米为原料的燃料乙醇发展空间受到极大的限制,原料多元化势在必行。初步测算,2010年燃料乙醇的可供应量约360万t,2020年燃料乙醇的可供应量约1700万t,可以满足国家可再生能源中长期发展规划规定的目标。最后,提出依靠科技进步以及发展纤维素乙醇等措施。

Preliminary Analysis on Sustainable Supply of Raw Materials for Fuel Ethanol in China

Through evaluation of China’s grain supply situation, land resources, agricultural production characteristics, natural resources, it preliminarily analyzes raw materials for fuel ethanol supply in China. Our country has a very large population with less land, shortage of arable land resources, while having a tight balance between supply and demand of grain. Due to corn-based fuel ethanol development space is greatly limited, it is urgent to diversify source of raw materials. It is preliminary estimated, in 2010 fuel ethanol supply could be about 3.6 million tons, in 2020, fuel ethanol could supply about 17 million tons, so that it can meet goals of long-term national development plan of renewable energy sources. Finally, the paper put forward measures that relying on scientific and technological progress and the development of cellulose ethanol.