基于多因素修正的台风灾害下输电线路失效预测方法

台风灾害是导致沿海地区输电线路倒塔(杆)、断线等线路损毁的主要原因之一。为了提高电网抵御台风的能力，进行台风灾害下输电线路失效预测具有重要意义。为此文中将输电线路看做由杆塔和线路共同组成的塔线系统，提出了一种基于多因素修正的台风灾害下输电线路塔线系统的失效预测方法。该方法结合传统的风荷载受力模型以及多因素分析的数据挖掘技术，分为基于模型驱动和基于数据驱动2个部分。模型驱动部分考虑杆塔和输电线路实际风荷载及设计风荷载的物理力学模型；数据驱动部分考虑电网信息、气象信息、地理信息等多因素信息，通过对历次台风灾害下的样本数据进行数据挖掘分析，结合当前预测信息，求取修正系数对模型驱动结果加以修正，进而获得输电线路塔线系统的综合失效概率，并对其进行可视化处理。最后通过算例分析验证了所提方法的科学性及有效性。

Multi-factor Correction Based Failure Prediction Method of Transmission Line with Typhoon Disaster

The typhoon disaster is one of the main reasons leading to the damages of transmission lines in the coastal areas, such as falling towers, breaking lines, etc. In order to improve the ability of power grid to against the typhoon disaster, it is of great significance to predict the transmission line failure under typhoon disaster. Therefore, the transmission line is regarded as a tower-line system composed of towers and lines, and a method for predicting the damage of transmission tower-line system under typhoon disaster based on multi-factor correction is proposed. The method combines the traditional wind load model and the multi-factor analysis data mining technology, and is divided into two parts: model-driven and data-driven. The model-driven part considers the actual wind load and the design wind load of tower and transmission line, and a physical mechanics model is established. The data-driven part considers multi-factor information such as power system information, meteorological information, and geographic information. Through the analysis of sample data under previous typhoon disasters, combined with current forecast information, the correction coefficient is obtained to correct the model-driven results, and then the comprehensive failure probability of the transmission tower-line system is obtained and visualized. Finally, the method is proven to be scientific and effective by case studies.