基于熵值法和层次分析法的广东省水资源安全评价及影响因素分析

水资源安全综合评价对水资源管理与规划具有重要意义。通过熵值法和层次分析法构建了广东省水资源安全评价体系,综合分析了2007-2016年广东省水资源安全状况。结果表明:2007-2016年,广东省水资源安全指数始终介于0. 4～0. 6之间,属于一般安全等级,水资源和社会经济安全指数稳步提升,但水生态安全指数呈现下降趋势;广东省水资源安全空间分异明显,珠三角核心区、粤东的潮汕地区及粤西的湛江市水资源安全等级较低,珠三角核心区水生态指数较低,社会经济安全指数由珠三角核心区向外围逐步递减;广东省水资源安全影响因素存在区域差异,珠三角地区水资源安全的优势因素为社会经济,劣势因素为水生态环境,而粤东、粤西及粤北地区的优势因素为水资源量与水生态环境,劣势因素为社会经济。整体来看,广东省水资源安全状况与区域经济发展程度不匹配,经济相对发达的珠三角核心区、粤东和粤西沿海地区的水资源安全形势较为严峻。研究结果以期为广东省及其各地市水资源规划和管理提供参考。

Evaluation and factors of water resource security of Guangdong Province using entropy value and analytic hierarchy process methods

Evaluation of water resource security is important for the management and planning of water resource. This study established integrative assessment system using the entropy value method and analytic hierarchy process method, and analyzed status of water resource security for Guangdong Province during 2007 and 2016. Results showed that security index of water resource ranged between 0.4 and 0.6 for Guangdong Province in the studied 10 years, which belonged to general security level. The security index for water resource and community economy increased, whereas the security index of water ecology decreased. Moreover, the spatial pattern of security index of water resource displayed significant heterogeneity, with the lower security class of water resource distributing in the Pearl River Delta region, eastern (Chaoshan) and western (Zhanjiang) part of Guangdong Province. The security index of community economy decreased from the Pearl River Delta region to outside. Furthermore, the effects on security of water resource showed obviously spatial differences. The advantage of water resource security in the Pearl River Delta region was community economy, while the disadvantage was water ecology. For the eastern, western and northern parts of Guangdong Province, the advantages were water resource volume and water ecology, while the disadvantage was community economy. In conclusion, the spatial pattern of water resource security and economic development did not well correspond, and the status of water resource security was relatively worse in the Pearl River Delta, eastern and western parts of Guangdong Province. The results will be beneficial for the management and planning of water resource in Guangdong Province.