贵州省1960-2014年降水量时空变化特征分析

基于贵州省1960-2014年19个气象站点的降水观测数据,采用一元线性回归拟合、累计距平、MannKendall突变检验等方法,分析贵州省55年的年、最大月降水量的时空变化规律。结果表明:贵州省1960-2014年年均降水量总体呈南多北少的空间分布格局,以-17. 815 mm/10a的变化率在逐年减少,自20世纪80年代以来变化尤其不稳定;岩溶槽谷降水量的增加趋势明显,而岩溶盆地下降趋势明显,岩溶峡谷、岩溶槽谷和非喀斯特区在近几年来的降水量较不稳定;贵州省降水受地形地貌和季风的影响显著,逐年明显的极端气候对农作物的生长和社会经济发展存在不利影响。研究结果对贵州省短期气候预测、制定旱涝灾害预警机制和合理利用水资源等具有重要意义。

Spatial and temporal variation characteristics of precipitaition in Guizhou Province from 1960 to 2014

Based on the monthly precipitation data of 19 meteorological stations in Guizhou Province from 1960 to 2014, the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of annual precipitation and maximum montly precipitation for 55 years were analyzed by means of linear regression fitting, cumulative anomaly and Mann-Kendall mutation test. The results indicated that: the annual precipitation in the south was less than the north in Guizhou Province from 1960 to 2014, and with a rate of -17.815 mm/10a decreasing. The change has been particularly unstable since the 1980s. The precipitation in the karst trough has increased significantly from 1960 to 2014, while the karst basin has a declining trend. The karst gorge, karst trough and non-karst areas have been unstable in recent years. Precipitation was significantly affected by complex karst landforms and monsoons. The obvious extreme drought and flood climate will have an adverse impact on crop growth and socio-economic development. The results are of great significance for the research on key issues of water-saving agriculture such as short-term climate prediction and the formulation of drought and flood disaster warning.