| 基于Gumbel极值分布的储罐使用状态评价方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈荣刚,褚林森,刘迎鑫,葛斌,张健,吉家贤,张颖. 基于Gumbel极值分布的储罐使用状态评价方法研究[J]. 化工机械, 2013, 0(6): 768-770,779 |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈荣刚 褚林森 刘迎鑫 葛斌 张健 吉家贤 张颖 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]中海油（南通）港口有限公司 [2]沈阳华晨金杯汽车有限公司 [3]东北石油大学机械科学与工程学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 黑龙江省教育厅科学技术研究项目（12511008）. |
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| 摘 要： | 储罐的剩余寿命是其长期平稳运行的保证,目前国内尚无明确的方法处置服役期满的储罐。根据储罐腐蚀特点,底板是其腐蚀最严重的部位,而底板腐蚀的最大孔深度服从Gumbel I型最大极值分布。根据最大极值分布和概率统计,推导出储罐剩余寿命计算公式,建立储罐底板剩余寿命的极大值分布预测评价方法,得出某公司储罐在0.99、0.999和0.999 9的可靠度下的剩余寿命分别为40年、34年和25年,有效指导了储罐检修周期的确定。
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| 关 键 词： | 储罐 底板 剩余寿命预测 Gumbel极值分布 |
Research of Evaluation Method for Storage Tank Based on Gumbel Extreme Value Distribution |
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| Affiliation: | CHEN Rong-gang,CHU Lin-sen1,LIU Ying-xin2 GE Bin ZHANG Jia-xian Ying3 Jian , JI ,ZHANG ( 1. CNOOC Nantong Port Co. ,Ltd. , Nantong 226009, China; 2. Shenyang Brilliance Jinbei Automobile Co. ,Ltd. , Shenyang 110044, China ; 3. College of Mechanical Science and Engineering, Northeast Petroleum University, Daqing 163318, China) |
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| Abstract: | The remaining life prediction of storage tank can ensure a long-term service of the storage tank, and at present time, no clear way at home can be applicable to the dispose of expired storage tank. The corro- sion characteristics of storage tank demonstrate that tank＇ s bottom plate is easy to be seriously corroded and its maximum corrosion depth conforms to the extreme value distribution of Gumbel I ~ Based on the maximum ex- treme value distribution and probability statistics of corrosion data, the calculation formula of the remaining life prediction for large-scale storage tank was deduced to present a prediction method for distribution of the remai- ning life＇ s maximum extreme value. Regarding the storage tank＇ s 25, 20 andl7-year remaining life at the re- liability of 0.99, 0. 999 and 0. 999 9 respectively, this method can be used to determine their repair period. |
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| Keywords: | storage tank bottom plate remaining life prediction Gumbel extreme value distribution |
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