基于初状态优化的弹道导弹自由段定轨和预测方法

针对导弹预警系统中弹道导弹自由段观测和落点预报的问题,提出了一种基于弹道初状态优化的新型弹道计算和预测方法。首先,介绍了弹道目标的自由段动力学模型;然后,详细阐述了基于初状态优化,通过弹道位置、速度六维度的二分迭代寻优的新型弹道计算方法和步骤,同时深入分析和研究了弹道目标中的定轨误差、弹道外推预报和落点误差计算方法。数值仿真验证了论文方法的有效性,所得结论对于弹道导弹预警信息处理工作具有一定的指导意义。

Ballistic Missile Orbit Determination and Prediction Approach in Free-flight Phase Based on Initial Condition Optimization

In ballistic missile early-warning system, a novel initial condition optimization-based orbit calculation and prediction approach is proposed for free-light phase orbit determination and impact point prediction. Firstly, the dynamic model of ballistic missile is presented. The initial stated optimization based ballistic calculation algorithm and scheme are detailed. Both trajectory estimation error and orbit prediction error are analyzed. Numerical simulations verify the validity of the proposed method, and the conclusions have certain guiding significance for the work of ballistic missile early warning information processing.