The reliability estimation of pipeline using FORM, SORM and Monte Carlo Simulation with FAD |
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Authors: | Ouk Sub Lee Dong Hyeok Kim |
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Affiliation: | (1) School of Mechanical Engineering, INHA University, 402-751 Incheon, Korea;(2) Department of Mechanical Engineering, INHA University, 402-751 Incheon, Korea |
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Abstract: | In this paper, the reliability estimation of pipelines is performed by employing the probabilistic method, which accounts
for the uncertainties in the load and resistance parameters of the limit state function. The FORM (first order reliability
method) and the SORM (second order reliability method) are carried out to estimate the failure probability of pipeline utilizing
the FAD (failure assessment diagram). And the reliability of pipeline is assessed by using this failure probability and analyzed
in accordance with a target safety level. Furthermore, the MCS (Monte Carlo Simulation) is used to verify the results of the
FORM and the SORM. It is noted that the failure probability increases with the increase of dent depth, gouge depth, operating
pressure, outside radius, and the decrease of wall thickness. It is found that the FORM utilizing the FAD is a useful and
is an efficient method to estimate the failure probability in the reliability assessment of a pipeline. Furthermore, the pipeline
safety assessment technique with the deterministic procedure utilizing the FAD only is turned out more conservative than those
obtained by using the probability theory together with the FAD. The probabilistic method such as the FORM, the SORM and the
MCS can be used by most plant designers regarding the operating condition and design parameters. |
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Keywords: | Reliability Failure Probability FAD FORM SORM Monte Carlo Simulation Pipeline |
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