黄河流域发展质量综合评估研究

黄河流域是一个复杂的巨系统,其中要素众多,关系复杂,既相互联系又相互制约。人民治黄以来,流域保护治理成效显著,但仍存在一些突出问题。流域高质量发展要打破传统"头痛医头、脚痛医脚"的流域治理模式,亟需从综合治理、系统治理、源头治理的角度深入开展流域发展质量综合评估的研究。本研究基于系统科学和信息论等基础理论,提出流域发展质量综合评估理论,构建了流域发展指数(Basin Development Index,BDI)及宏观-中观-微观三层的评价体系,探索流域巨系统演变规律,为流域保护治理提供技术支撑和理论依据。研究发现,BDI总体演变规律为先降低后升高,呈现震荡式向好趋势;人均GDP、总冲淤量(黄河下游)、重要断面生态基流保证率、生境质量指数为影响黄河流域巨系统的关键因素。

Research on comprehensive evaluation of the development quality of the Yellow River Basin

The Yellow River Basin is a complex giant system with numerous elements and complex relationships, which are both interrelated and mutually restricted. Since people began to control the Yellow River, watershed governance and protection have achieved remarkable results, but there are still some outstanding problems, which fully embodies the "appearance in the Yellow River, roots in the basin", and reveals the complexity, coordination and integrity of watershed governance and protection work. The high-quality development of the river basin needs to break the traditional "treat the symptoms but not the disease" river basin governance model, and carry out more in-depth research from the perspective of comprehensive governance, system governance, and source governance. In particular, it is urgent to study the comprehensive evaluation theory of watershed development quality. Based on the basic theories such as system science and information theory, this research puts forward a comprehensive evaluation theory of watershed development quality, constructs a basin development index (BDI) and a three-tier evaluation system of macro-medium-micro level, so as to explore the evolution law of the watershed giant system, and provide technical support and theoretical basis for river basin governance and protection. This study found that the overall evolution law of BDI was firstly decreased and then increased, showing an oscillating trend to the good. Per capita GDP, total amount of scour and deposition (in the lower reaches of the Yellow River), guarantee rate of ecological base flow in important sections and habitat quality index are the key factors affecting the quality of the Yellow River Basin.