| 基于神经网络的风电场风速时间序列预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 肖永山,王维庆,霍晓萍.基于神经网络的风电场风速时间序列预测研究[J].节能技术,2007,25(2):106-108,175. |
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| 作者姓名： | 肖永山 王维庆 霍晓萍 |
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| 作者单位： | 新疆大学,新疆,乌鲁木齐,830008;国家风力发电工程技术研究中心,新疆,乌鲁木齐,830026 |
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| 基金项目： | 新疆自治区高校重点项目
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新疆自治区高校创新团队项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 在电力市场中,风电所占电网的比例越来越大.但由于风的波动及其不可控性,风电场的发电量也在随机变化,所以很有必要对其产能进行预测.风速是影响产能最直接最根本的因素.本文利用时间序列神经网络对风电场的风速提前一小时进行预测,为电力调度提供参考,并为更长时间(半天,一天或两天)的风速预测提供理论基础.
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| 关 键 词： | 风速 预测 时间序列 神经网络 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-6339（2007）02-0106-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-11-282007-01-18 |
Study on the Time-series Wind Speed Forecasting of the Wind farm Based on Neural Networks |
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| XIAO Yong-shan,WANG Wei-qing,HUO Xiao-ping.Study on the Time-series Wind Speed Forecasting of the Wind farm Based on Neural Networks[J].Energy Conservation Technology,2007,25(2):106-108,175. |
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| Authors: | XIAO Yong-shan WANG Wei-qing HUO Xiao-ping |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Xin Jiang University, Urumqi 830008, China; 2. National Wind Power Engineering and Technology Research Centre, Urumqi 830026, China |
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| Abstract: | In the power market,the proportion of the wind power is becoming more and more large.But,because of the fluctuation and uncontrollable of wind,the wind farm power output is also fluctuated randomly.So,it is very necessarily to forecast the short-term power output of wind farm.Wind speed is the essential factor which affects the output.In the paper,Using the method of time-series neural networks the wind speed of wind farm is predicted one hour in advance.Results provide a reference to the power dispatch and a theory basis to forecast such longer time as half of day,one day or two days. |
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| Keywords: | wind speed forecasting time series neural networks |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
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