| GM(1,1)改进模型在年径流量预测上的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 李彬,袁鹏,常江.GM(1,1)改进模型在年径流量预测上的应用[J].东北水利水电,2006,24(2):28-30. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李彬 袁鹏 常江 |
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| 作者单位： | 四川大学水电学院,四川,成都,610065 |
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| 摘 要： | 背景值是影响灰色模型预测精度的关键性因素之一,GM(1,1)改进模型是在对背景值进行优化的基础上建立的灰色模型。通过对研究区年均径流量资料进行分析,根据径流量和时间的关系,建立了GM(1,1)改进模型,并将其应用于年径流量的预测,取得了较好的效果。
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| 关 键 词： | GM(1 1)改进模型 径流量 预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-0624（2006）02-0028-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-09-28 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年9月28日 |
Application of improved GM(1,1)model in forecast of annual runoff. |
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| LI Bin,YUAN Peng,CHANG Jiang.Application of improved GM(1,1)model in forecast of annual runoff.[J].Water Resources & Hydropower of Northeast China,2006,24(2):28-30. |
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| Authors: | LI Bin YUAN Peng CHANG Jiang |
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| Abstract: | The background value is one of key factors for influence the monitoring precision of gray model. The improved GM(1,1) model is a gray model that it is built on base of optimization of background value, according to the relation of runoff and time, through the analysis of annual mean runoff. This model is applied to the precision of annual runoff and is crowned with excellent results. |
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| Keywords: | GM(1 1) improved model runoff forecast |
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