在役混凝土桥梁剩余寿命预测方法研究

合理预测现有混凝土桥梁剩余寿命,对于公路和城市交通运输具有重要的安全、技术与经济意义.为了更好地研究在役混凝土桥梁的工作状态和为预测桥梁使用寿命提供技术方法参考,追踪介绍了目前桥梁寿命预测方法的发展现状,并总结归纳出这些方法的主要类型,进而对其中比较常用的回归分析法、基于可靠度理论方法、灰色预测法、马尔可夫法、灰色马尔科夫法、神经网络法等预测方法做了特点与适用性方面的比较研究.

Research on Residual Life Prediction Method of the Existing Concrete Bridge

Reasonable prediction of the existing concrete bridge residual life has important significance in safety,technology and economics for highway and city transportation.To better study the service state of the existing concrete bridge and provide technical reference for the bridge service life prediction,the current status of bridge service life prediction method are introduced in the paper;the main type of these methods is summarized;and the characteristics and applicability are compared for the commonly used methods such as regression analysis method,method based on the reliability theory,the gray theory method,Markov method,gray Markov method and neural network prediction method.