基于景观演变的滨海湿地生态健康评价与预测

以长乐闽江河口国家湿地公园为例，选取2008年以来的影像数据，构建基于PSR模型的长乐闽江河口国家湿地公园生态系统健康评价指标体系，并运用熵权法与综合评价法，结合灰色预测模型，预测闽江口国家湿地公园2020、2022、2024年的健康状况。结果表明，闽江口国家湿地公园的潮间带盐沼、草甸与水体间的景观类型反复变化且明显；2008、2010、2012、2014、2016、2018年生态健康值分别为0.740、0.737、0.704、0.640、0.674、0.654,均处于健康状态，但受人类干扰、养殖密度、城镇与农业等人为因素的影响，总体呈下降趋势，且经预测，2020、2022、2024年生态系统健康值均为亚健康。

Evaluation and Risk Assessment for Coastal Wetland Ecosystem Health Based on Landscape Evolution

Taking Changle Minjiang Estuary National Wetland Park as an example, the image data since 2008 were selected to construct the ecosystem health evaluation index system of Changle Minjiang Estuary National Wetland Park based on the PSR model. Combined with gray prediction model, the entropy weight method and comprehensive evaluation method were used to predict the health status of Minjiangkou National Wetland Park in 2020, 2022, and 2024. The results show that the landscape types between the salt marshes, meadows and water bodies in the Minjiang Estuary National Wetland Park repeatedly changed;The ecological health values in 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018 were 0.740, 0.737, 0.740, 0.704, 0.640, 0.674, and 0.654, respectively, all were in a healthy state;Due to human disturbance, breeding density, urban and agricultural factors, the overall trend was decreasing, and the predicted ecosystem health values are all sub-health in 2020, 2022, 2024.