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科学的井眼轨迹设计方法和精确的井眼轨迹预测与控制技术是确保定向井、丛式井、水平井、大位移井、老井重钻、复杂结构井等一系列特殊工艺井钻井成功，降低钻井成本的关键技术。科学的井眼轨迹预测不仅可以指导轨迹设计、预测实钻井眼轨迹参数，而且可以优化下部钻具组合、提高轨迹控制精度。文章对井眼轨迹预测理论及方法作了简要的分类，介绍了几种目前常用的井眼轨迹预测方法及其特点；提出了基于钻井系统动力学的井眼轨迹预测理论及方法，建立了新的预测模式，提出了井眼轨迹不仅与下部钻具组合和钻头与岩石互作用有关，而且与钻柱的振动和钻井液水力作用有关。

Study on Theory and Method of Bore-hole Trajectory Prediction

Scientific bore-hole trajectory prediction can not only guide trajectory design and predict drilling trajectory parameters, but also optimize BHA and improve trajectory control accuracy. The theories and methods of bore-hole trajectory prediction are briefly classified in this article. Some methods that are usually used now and their characteristics of bore-hole trajectory prediction are introduced. A new theory and model of bore-hole trajectory prediction is developed based on drilling system dynamics. It is points out that the bore-hole trajectory is related to not only BHA and Bit-Rock mutual action, but also the drilling string vibration and the hydraulic action of drilling fluids.