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随机服务系统在装备需求预测与决策建模中的应用
引用本文:李树广,赵彦峻,徐诚.随机服务系统在装备需求预测与决策建模中的应用[J].兵工自动化,2011,30(2):14-17.
作者姓名:李树广  赵彦峻  徐诚
作者单位:南京理工大学机械工程学院;防化指挥工程学院军事学术研究所;山东理工大学机械工程学院;
摘    要:为解决复杂约束条件下装备维修保障决策难题,运用随机服务系统原理进行装备需求预测与决策建模。结合装备维修保障需求预测与决策问题实际,系统分析随机服务系统模型的基本组成、分布规律、表示方法及主要模型和衡量指标,提出基于保障效率约束条件的装备维修保障需求预测与决策方法,结合装备维修保障实际建立了装备维修保障的损失函数概念,并运用实例验证了该方法的可行性和有效性。该研究结论对创新装备维修保障需求预测与决策方法,推进装备维修保障精确化发展具有一定的现实意义。

关 键 词:装备需求  随机服务系统  预测与决策方法  损失函数
收稿时间:2013/1/15 0:00:00

Application of Randomized Service System in Modeling of Equipment Demand Forecasting and Decision-Making
Li Shuguang,Zhao Yanjun,Xu Cheng.Application of Randomized Service System in Modeling of Equipment Demand Forecasting and Decision-Making[J].Ordnance Industry Automation,2011,30(2):14-17.
Authors:Li Shuguang  Zhao Yanjun  Xu Cheng
Affiliation:Li Shuguang1,2,Zhao Yanjun1,3,Xu Cheng1(1.School of Mechanical Engineering,Nanjing University of Science & Technology,Nanjing 210094,China,2.Military Academic Research Center,Institute of Chemical Defense,Beijing 102205,3.School of Mechanical Engineering,Shandong University of Technology,Zibo 255000,China)
Abstract:To solve the difficulty of decision making on equipment maintenance and insurance under restricted conditions,based on the principal of randomized service system,setting up the equipment demand forecasting and decision-making modeling.By combining the demand forecasting on equipment maintenance and insurance with the decision making process,conducting a systematic analysis on the basic components,distribution law,denotative method,primary model and evaluating index of the randomized service system,the metho...
Keywords:equipment demand  randomized service system  forecasting and decision-making method  loss function  
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