Drought Severity Assessment Based on Bivariate Probability Analysis |
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Authors: | Harris Vangelis Mike Spiliotis George Tsakiris |
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Affiliation: | (1) Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards and Proactive Planning and Laboratory of Reclamation Works and Water Resources Management, National Technical University of Athens, 9, Iroon Polytechniou, Athens, 15773, Greece |
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Abstract: | Conventionally drought severity is assessed based on drought indices. Recently the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) was
proposed to assess drought severity based on the precipitation to potential evapotranspiration ratio (P/PET). In this paper
RDI is studied as a bivariate index under a set of assumptions and simplifications. The paper presents a simple computational
procedure for estimating the P/PET ratio for selected reference periods varying from 3 to 12 months, for any return period
of drought. Alternatively, based on this procedure, the severity of any drought episode is rationally assessed. A bivariate
probability analysis is employed based on the assumption that P and PET values are normally distributed and often negatively
correlated. Examples for the application of the proposed procedure are presented using data from several meteorological stations
in Greece. It is shown that the assumption of normality of both P and PET holds for long periods at all examined stations. |
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