基于因素分解与总量控制的区域社会经济用水分析

考虑到经济产业结构调整和用水效率控制对社会水循环过程调控的重要性,以江苏沿海开发区域内的盐城市为研究区,根据其社会经济现状与发展计划、水资源开发利用战略与目标、节水型社会建设规划方案等实际情况,采用水资源利用驱动因素分析法和数学规划解析法相结合的手段,建立了纳入驱动因素分解效应量化值的非线性规划模型,计算了2010-2015年研究区基于用水总量控制的社会经济发展规模、产业结构比例及其用水效率的合理方案。最后,根据计算成果,分析了研究区产业结构、用水定额、经济水平与人口规模四个因素对区域用水总量变化的影响。

Regional socio2economic water consumption based on factors decomposition and total water2use quantity limi t

In consider atio n o f the sig nificance o f indust rial st ructur e adjustment and w ater use efficiency co ntr ol to the H ydr oso2 cial2Cycle, and taking Yancheng Cit y, a t ypical r egio n in Jiang su Coastal Distr ict as case study reg ion, a no nlinear pr og ramming model w as set up by using Log arithmic Mean Divisia Index appr oach and mathemat ical prog ramming metho d, w hich contains const raint of t otal w ater2use quantity limit and quantization equations of dr iv ing fact ors decomposit ion effect. The analy tic mo del too k full account o f socio2econom ic development pr esent situatio n and plan, water resources utilizat ion strateg y and ta rget, sav2 ing2w ater society co nst ruct ion planning . Dur ing 2010 to 2015, the r ational scheme o n Yancheng Cityc s so cio2economic dev elop2 ment size, industr ial st ruct ur e pr oport ion and w ater resour ces utilizat ion efficiency was achieved by so lv ing model. Acco rding to our computatio n r esults, the char act er istic o f dr iving factor s effects from intensity of w ater utilizatio n, industr ial str ucture, eco2 nom ic dev elopment level and po pulation scale w ere analy zed, as well as the adjustment po licy o f the prima ry industr y, secondary industry and ter tiar y industr y.