不确定性信息下流域土壤侵蚀量计算

根据流域土壤、地形、降雨、植被、管理技术等因素存在的多种不确定性特点，运用盲数来描述和处理通用土壤流失方程USLE中各参数的不确定性，尝试性地提出了不确定性信息下流域土壤侵蚀量计算的新方法。根据这一方法，不仅可以求得研究区域土壤潜在侵蚀量的各种可能取值区间，也可以得到各区间相应的主观可信度。再由盲数均值计算公式，最终得到整个研究区域土壤潜在侵蚀总量。在此基础上，结合区域土壤中氮、磷含量资料，可以计算出吸附态氮、磷的流失量。实例研究表明，运用盲数理论研究流域土壤侵蚀量和吸附态氮、磷流失量，理论上是可行的，计算结果是可信的。

Calculation of basin soil erosion load according to uncertain information

Based on the multi-uncertainty characteristics of the information in soil, topography, raining, vegetation and management technology, the blind number method in unascertained mathematics is applied to describe and treat the characteristics of parameters in the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE). On this basis a new method for calculating the basin soil erosion is proposed. By using this method, not only the interval values of potential soil erosion load but also the corresponding faith degree can be obtained. The total soil erosion can be calculated by using mean value formula of blind number. According to the soil erosion the loss loads of adsorptive nitrogen and phosphorus are estimated. Case study shows that this method is feasible and the estimated result is believable.