中国石化探区油气储量增长趋势

基于中石化探区常规石油天然气历年新增探明储量数据和发现历程，结合“十一五”石油天然气储量目标与勘探计划部署，选用了逻辑斯蒂、龚帕兹及哈伯特3 种预测模型，预测了中石化探区未来25 年常规油气储量增长趋势。在目前勘探矿权区块没有大增或大减，勘探投入增长力度基本保持稳定的条件下，预计2006—2010 年中石化探区累积新增石油探明储量11.28×10⁸ t，累积新增天然气探明储量7 100×108 m³；2011—2015 年石油为10.75×10⁸ t，天然气为7 359×10m³；2016—2020 年石油为10.70×10⁸ t，天然气为7 792×108 m³；2021—2025 年石油为9.08×10⁸ t，天然气为6 422×108m³；2026—2030 年石油为6.81×10⁸ t，天然气为4 495×108 m³. 表明了中石化探区油气勘探具有良好前景。

Oil-Gas Reserves Increasing Trend in Sinopec-Controlled Exploration Areas

Based on the incremental proven oil-gas reserves every year and the relevant discovery history, along with the targets of "the Eleventh Five-Year Plan" and exploration deployment, the conventional oil-gas reserves increasing trend in 25 years to come is predicted using Logistic, Comperts and Hubbert methods. In the present conditions that Sinopec-controlled exploration areas do not change and exploration investment requirement remains the same on the whole, it is predicted that the newly incremental proven oil accumulative reserves will reach 11.28×10⁸ t, newly incremental proven gas accumulative reserves will be 7 100×108 m³ during the period of 2006- 2010; 10.75×10⁸ t to oil, 7 359×108 m³ to gas of 2011-2015; 10.70×10⁸ t to oil, 7 792×108 m³ to gas of 2016-2020; 9.08×10⁸ t to oil, 6 422× 108 m³ to gas of 2021-2025, and 6.81×10⁸ t to oil, 4 495×108 m³ to gas of 2026-2030, all of which shows good potentials for oil-gas exploration in the future in Sinopec-controlled exploration areas.