国际油价波动下的石油企业勘探开发投资分析

石油企业的生产经营活动必然受到油价波动的影响．分析研究国际大石油公司应对国际油价波动所采取的勘探开发投资行为具有重要指导意义。主要从财务数据方面深入分析埃克森美孚、壳牌、BP三大石油公司的勘探开发投资变动情况，特别选取勘探开发投资额日占总投资额丁的比重E／T作为分析数据，同时对环比的｜△（E／（T）｜与油价环比波动量之间的关系做进一步分析。分析结果表明，尽管油价波动性很大，但三大石油公司勘探开发投资所占比重一直很大，它们近10年在勘探开发方面的投资比重平均值分别为58．8639％、61．6917％、74．182％。三大石油公司的勘探开发投资比重曲线与国际油价曲线存在中度正相关性。但勘探开发投资比重变动量均与国际油价波动量存在负相关性。面对油价极大的波动性，三大石油公司的勘探开发投资势头并没有减弱，并且都有所保留地缓慢增加勘探开发方面的投资，体现了量入为出的经营理念。当油价高企时，上游勘探开发投资利润空间较大，勘探开发投资比重加大；当油价过低时，为了保证石油资源勘探开发的持续发展，应对需求增长和产能下降，需要进行大量投资；只有在国际油价波动范围较小时，石油企业才会改变其勘探开发投资比重，采取与油价波动负方向的投资决策。

Oil Companies' Exploration and Production Investment in Setting of International Oil Price Fluctuations

Oil companies＇ operations will surely be affected by the fluctuations of oil prices.Analyzing large international oil companies＇ exploration and production investment activities in the setting of fluctuations of international oil prices is of great instructive significance.This article analyzes the changes in the exploration and development investment activities of ExxonMobil ,Shell and BP based on these three companies＇ financial data.The paper uses the ratio of Investment in Exploration and Production to Total Investment （E/T ratio） as analytic data and looks at the relationship between the year-on-year △（E/T） and the year-on-year range of oil price fluctuations.The analytic results show that although oil prices fluctuated dramatically,the percentages of the three companies＇ investment in exploration and production in total investment have long remained high. The average percentages of investment by the three companies in exploration and production in total invest- ment in the past nearly 10 years were 58.8639%,61.6917% and 74.182% respectively.There is intermediate positive correlation between the curves for the percentages of exploration and production investment of the three companies and the curves for international ment in exploration and production are negatively the face of dramatically fluctuating oil prices ,the has not lost momentum and on the contrary,they oil prices ,while the changes in the percentages of invest- correlated with the fluctuations of international oil prices.In three companies＇ investment in exploration and production all have gradually increased their investment in exploration and production with reservations,reflecting their business philosophy of making both ends meet.When oil prices stay high ,the profit margins of the upstream exploration and production sector are relatively large and these companies would increase the percentage of investment in exploration and production;when oil prices are low,to sustain oil exploration and production and to meet increasing demand with shrinking production capacity,these companies would make large investment.Only when the international oil prices fluctuate within a small range,would oil companies adopt an investment policy going in the opposite direction to oil price fluctuations by changing the percentages of their investment in exploration and production in total investment.