应对不确定性的水利工程项目责任成本测算方法

成本控制对提高项目管理水平、扩大项目利润空间具有重要意义。责任成本测算作为工程项目成本控制的有效方法被许多企业认可，但是工程项目的许多不确定性限制了这种方法的应用。以水利工程项目群为基础，从概率论的角度分析了人为、环境等不确定性因素对责任成本测算的影响，并提出应对不确定性的具体措施。针对水利工程项目特点对责任成本测算方法进行研究，提出了“小循环”成本测算方法，将不确定性因素产生的总影响考虑在责任成本测算额之内，为项目成本测算的合理性与准确性提供了思路，并为责任成本测算在水利工程项目中的应用提供了方法。

Study on the Responsibility Cost Calculation Method of Water Conservancy Projects in Response to Uncertainty Factors

The cost control is significant to improve the level of project management and expand the profit space. The responsibility cost calculation，as an effective method of engineering project cost control，has been recognized by many corporations. But many uncertainties in the engineering projects limit the application of this method. Based on water conservancy project group，this paper analyzes the influence of uncertainty factors such as human and environmental factors on the measurement of responsibility cost from the perspective of Probability Theory. And then the specific measures to deal with the uncertainties are put forward. The paper carries on the research of the responsibility cost calculation method in view of water conservancy projects，and the method called "small circle" for calculating the cost is proposed. At the same time，the total effect of the uncertainty factors is considered in the calculation amount of the responsibility cost. It provides an approach for the rationality and accuracy of project cost calculation，and provides a method for the application of the responsibility cost calculation in water conservancy projects.