基于Z-number 改进挣值法的工程项目成本进度集成控制分析

挣值技术是项目实施中对项目进度费用进行评价与控制的重要工具。为提高挣值技术在不确定性环境中的适用性，引入Z-number 模糊数，运用α 截集法量化模糊数，提出一种新的模糊挣值模型。该模型不仅综合考虑了环境的模糊性、度量数据产生过程的不确定性及度量数据的可靠性，且能依据项目不同施工阶段特点，通过调节α 的取值控制环境的模糊性，从而更贴近工程项目不同施工阶段的实际情况。并从数据角度与传统模糊挣值模型进行对比，验明了模型在工程管理实践中具有更强的适应性和更精准的预测评价。

The Integrated Control of Cost and Progress of Construction Project Based on the Improved Earned Value of the Z-number Theory

Earned value technology is an important tool for the evaluation and control of project schedule cost. In order to improve the applicability of the earned value technology in the uncertainty environment，the paper introduces the Z-number fuzzy number， and uses the method of the cut set method to quantify the fuzzy number，and proposes a new fuzzy earned value model. The proposed model not only considers the fuzziness of the environment，the uncertainty of the data generating process，and the reliability of the measurement data，but also can according to the characteristics of different stages of the project，control the vagueness of the environment by adjusting the α value，thus closer to actual situation in different stages of construction projects. Finally，from the perspective of data compared with traditional earned value model，and verify the proposed model in the practice of project management is more adaptable and more accurate evaluation.