Predictive tests of response to radiotherapy. Assessment and perspectives in 1997

A cohort study was carried out in order to evaluate the cancer risk in the asbestos-cement industry workers. The cohort consisted of workers employed in four asbestos-cement plants. One of those plants was established in 1924, the other three in the 1960s and 1970s. Currently only two of these plants continue their production. The plants used mainly chrysotile asbestos as well as crocidolite and amosite. Amphibolite asbestos was used before the mid-nineteen eighties in production of pressure pipes utilising about 15% of the total quantity of asbestos used. The measurements of the asbestos fibre concentration at work-sites have been taken occasionally since the mid 1980s, thus, the determination of a cumulative dose for individual persons in the cohort and the evaluation of the dose-effect relationship were not feasible. It could only be supposed that the concentrations at the preparatory work-site during first years of the plants' operation accounted for several tens fibres/cm3 in the production that employed the dry method. The cohort consisted of workers employed in the plant for at least three months between beginning of the plant during the post-war period, and 1980, that is during the period when amphibolite asbestos was in use. The retrospective observation was completed on 31 December 1991. The analysis of the death risk by causes was based on a standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) calculated using the person-years method. Statistical significance of SMRs was assessed by means of Poisson distribution one-sided test. The general population of Poland was used as the reference population to estimate the death risk. The cohort comprised 4,712 persons (3,563 males and 1,149 females). Of this number 4,500 persons (3,405 males and 1,095 females) were followed. The cohort availability were 95.5%. Male mortality, both total (473 deaths; SMR = 83) and due to malignant neoplasms (108 deaths; SMR = 86) was lower than in the general population. An excess of deaths from neoplasm of the pleura was by about 23 times higher (5 deaths; SMR = 2,288) and from neoplasm of the large intestine by two times higher (7 deaths; SMR = 214). Among females (41 deaths; SMR = 50) death risk was lower than in the reference population. At a low level of total mortality from neoplasms (13 deaths; SMR = 52) a statistically significant excess of deaths from neoplasm of the pleura (2 deaths; SMR = 2,112) was observed. In the plants investigated the analysis revealed a considerably diversified mortality from asbestos-related neoplasms. The incidence of pleura mesothelioma should be attributed to the use of considerable quantities of crocidolite asbestos and high concentrations of fibres in the air in plants II and IV, particularly during the first years after their establishment. In view of a long period of latency the excess of this neoplasm can be expected till 2020.