太湖流域河湖连通工程调度模式综述 |
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引用本文: | 王元元,陆志华,马农乐,蔡梅. 太湖流域河湖连通工程调度模式综述[J]. 人民长江, 2016, 46(12): 10-13. DOI: 10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2016.12.003 |
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作者姓名: | 王元元 陆志华 马农乐 蔡梅 |
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作者单位: | 1. 太湖流域管理局水利发展研究中心 上海200434;2. 上海东南工程咨询有限责任公司,上海,200434 |
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基金项目: | 水利部公益性行业科研专项经费资助项目(201301041),国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项项目(2014ZX07101-011) |
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摘 要: | 太湖流域自20世纪90年代以来,通过多项流域性重大专项规划和综合规划开展了一些工程建设,较大程度地改变了原有的河湖连通状况,相应地带动了流域及区域工程调度模式的转变。在明确流域未来河湖连通工程布局变化状况的基础上,梳理了流域工程调度模式转变历程和未来发展目标,并结合未来工程布局变化,对河湖连通特性演变趋势作了初步分析。在分析的基础上,结合太湖流域内发生过的典型风险事件,从工程调度过程入手,采用故障树分析法,初步分析了太湖流域河湖连通规划工程实施后调度中可能面临的风险,并提出了应对策略与建议,以为未来充分发挥河湖连通工程的正面作用、规避不良风险提供一定参考。
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关 键 词: | 工程调度 风险分析 故障树分析 河湖连通 太湖流域 |
Overview of scheduling of river-lake connectivity projects in Taihu Lake Basin |
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Abstract: | Since the 1990s, a number of water conservancy projects in Taihu Lake Basin were constructed, which largely changed the original connectivity of rivers and lakes, accordingly brought about the transformation of scheduling mode of these projects in the basin and the regional. On the basis of clarifying the change of river-lake connection layout in future, we analyze the transformation process and future development goals of the scheduling mode of the projects, and in the combination with the future change in layout, we analyze the evolution trend of river-lake connectivity. Finally, with the typical risk events that has occurred in the Taihu Lake Basin, by starting from the analysis of scheduling process, we preliminarily analyze the possible risks after the implementation of scheduling through the method of Fault Tree Analysis, and put forward some corresponding countermeasures and suggestions. This research has a certain reference value for giving full play to the positive role of connectivity projects and avoiding the risk of adverse effects. |
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Keywords: | project scheduling risk analysis Fault Tree Analysis river-lake connectivity Taihu Lake Basin |
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