太湖流域河湖连通工程调度模式综述

太湖流域自20世纪90年代以来,通过多项流域性重大专项规划和综合规划开展了一些工程建设,较大程度地改变了原有的河湖连通状况,相应地带动了流域及区域工程调度模式的转变。在明确流域未来河湖连通工程布局变化状况的基础上,梳理了流域工程调度模式转变历程和未来发展目标,并结合未来工程布局变化,对河湖连通特性演变趋势作了初步分析。在分析的基础上,结合太湖流域内发生过的典型风险事件,从工程调度过程入手,采用故障树分析法,初步分析了太湖流域河湖连通规划工程实施后调度中可能面临的风险,并提出了应对策略与建议,以为未来充分发挥河湖连通工程的正面作用、规避不良风险提供一定参考。

Overview of scheduling of river-lake connectivity projects in Taihu Lake Basin

Since the 1990s, a number of water conservancy projects in Taihu Lake Basin were constructed, which largely changed the original connectivity of rivers and lakes, accordingly brought about the transformation of scheduling mode of these projects in the basin and the regional. On the basis of clarifying the change of river-lake connection layout in future, we analyze the transformation process and future development goals of the scheduling mode of the projects, and in the combination with the future change in layout, we analyze the evolution trend of river-lake connectivity. Finally, with the typical risk events that has occurred in the Taihu Lake Basin, by starting from the analysis of scheduling process, we preliminarily analyze the possible risks after the implementation of scheduling through the method of Fault Tree Analysis, and put forward some corresponding countermeasures and suggestions. This research has a certain reference value for giving full play to the positive role of connectivity projects and avoiding the risk of adverse effects. 