气候变化条件下叶尔羌流域水库蒸发变化分析

为了研究气候变化对水库水面蒸发的影响,以叶尔羌河流域为研究对象,选取气温、相对湿度以及风速作为主要气候影响因子,基于人工神经网络构建统计降尺度模型。对研究区在全球气候模式BCC-CSM1.1三种情景(RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP8.5)下2020s、2050s、2080s时段内的蒸发量进行了预测。结果表明:叶尔羌流域水库的未来蒸发量总体呈增加态势,蒸发量E_(RCP2.6)E_(RCP4.5)E_(RCP8.5);2020s时段内3种情景模式下所选取水库年平均蒸发量为1 922.4~2 337.9 mm,蒸发渗漏损失率为35.17%~36.40%。

Study on evaporation change of reservoirs in Yarkant River Basin under climate change

In order to analyze the effects of climate change on evaporation of reservoirs in Yarkant River Basin, the statistical downscaling model with temperature, relative humidity and wind speed as the three main factors was established based on BP artificial neural network. The evaporation was predicted and the changes of evaporation of reservoirs in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s were analyzed under 3 scenarios of global climate model BCC-CSM1.1. The result shows that the evaporation of reservoirs in the basin as a whole is in increasing trend and follows the order of RCP8.5, RCP 4.5 and RCP2.6. Under the three scenarios, the evaporation in 2020s ranges from 1922.4mm to 2337.9mm and the loss ratio of evaporation and seepage ranges from 35.17% to 36.40%.