基于FAHP的南水北调中线工程征迁安置风险评估

针对南水北调中线工程线路长、影响范围广、征迁安置工作中存在的风险因素具有随机性和模糊性而导致风险评估难度较大等问题,在分析影响征迁安置工作风险因素的基础上,运用层次分析法建立征迁安置风险评价指标体系,应用模糊层次分析(FAHP)综合评价模型计算各层风险指标权重和隶属度,并以南水北调中线工程潮河段征迁安置为例进行风险评估,结果与工程实际较为一致。采用的方法和模型具有较好的合理性与可靠性,可为同类工程征迁安置风险评估提供借鉴。

FAHP-based risk assessment on land requisition and resettlement of Middle Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion

In view of the problems such as long route and wide influence scope of Middle Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion, as well as the randomness and fuzziness of risk factors existing in land requisition and resettlement, which lead to the difficulty in risk assessment, on the basis of the analysis on the factors influencing the land requisition and resettlement, the risk evaluation index system of land requisition and resettlement was established by using Analytic Hierarchy Process and the weight and membership degree of risk index for every layers were calculated based on FAHP. The risk evaluation index system was used to Chaohe section in the middle route project and the result is basically consistent with the engineering practice. It indicates that the method and model have better rationality and reliability, thus can provide reference for risk assessment of resettlement in similar linear engineering.