CAS理论在滇池流域水资源配置中的应用

基于复杂适应系统（CAS—Complex Adaptive System）理论，研究滇池流域水资源配置系统的演化机制，描述滇池复杂适应水资源配置系统“学习”的特点和本质、各用水及供水主体的影响因素和反应规则。随后，建立了滇池流域水资源配置的CAS模型。基于此模型，利用Matlab优化平台，预测了不同规划年滇池流域各部门的需水量，给出了流域仅在滇池水域与掌鸠河云龙水库供水条件下的水资源配置结果。最后，分析了利用CAS理论研究流域水资源配置的优越性，并给出了相应的结论。

Application of complex adaptive system theory to allocation of water resources in Dianchi Lake Basin

Based on CAS（complex adaptive system）theory，the evolution mechanism of the water resources allocation system of Dianchi Lake Basin is studied，and then the “learning” characteristics and nature of the CAS-based water resources allocation system for the basin，the influencing factors and response rule of all the main water users and suppliers are described.Whereafter，the CAS model for the water resources allocation of Dianchi Lake Basin is established.On the basis of this model，the water demands from all the sectors concerned in different planning years within the basin are predicted with Matlab optimization platform，and simultaneously，the result of the water resources allocation in the basin under the condition of the water supply only from the water area of Dianchi Lake and Yunlong Reservoir on Zhangjiuhe River is given.Finally，the advantage of the CAS based study on the water resources allocation of the basin is analyzed and the relevant conclusion is obtained as well.