基于灰色模型在大坪滑坡中的预测

利用灰关联分析方法对降雨量、三峡库区水位、水位孔水位等影响因子进行灰关联度分析,得出了影响因子与水位孔地下水位的关联程度,根据此关系建立了MGM(1,n)模型。根据三峡库区近坝库段大坪滑坡中某一滑坡带2007年至2009年监测数据,对大坪滑坡体三个监测孔水位分别进行了预测,并对预测值进行了精度分析,得到了合理可靠的结论,为三峡库区滑坡体的稳定性预测预报提供了有益的建议。

Forecasting of Daping Landslide Based on the Grey Model

This paper,through using the grey relational analysis method,analyzed the grey relational grade among the rainfall,the water lever of Three Gorges river and underground water level of water hole,obtained the relational grade between the related factors and the underground water level of the water holes.Based on the relationship,it established the MGM（1,n） model.According to the monitoring data,which was obtained from a section of Daping landslide zone near the Three Gorges Dam from 2007 to 2009,it predicted the underground water level of the three water holes respectively,analyzed the precision of the predicted data,and finally reached a reasonable and reliable conclusion which could provide some useful suggestions for forecasting the stability of the landslide in the zone of the Three Gorges.