吉林省气象卫星遥感技术服务效益评估研究

利用专家评估法中较成熟的德尔斐法进行吉林省气象卫星遥感应用服务效益评估,根据本省的应用服务特点,选择确定了评估的行业、范围、专家、内容,设计了评估咨询调查表,采用通信问卷形式辅以个别面对面送达材料并介绍情况的办法。通过对所选专家进行两轮的问卷调查,采用统一的计算模型,利用吉林省有关行业的国民生产总值,进行逐项分类统计分析,最后经综合分析评估出吉林省气象卫星遥感技术服务总效益约为5·3亿元人民币,效益成本比为:18∶1。

The Valuation and Study of Applied Benefits of the Meteorological Satellite Technology in Jilin Province

This paper studied the applied benefits of meteorological satellite technology in Jilin province with Delphi method riper in expert valuations.According to characteristics of the application and service in the province,we defined the trades,extents,experts and contents of the valuation,and designed advisory investigation forms.The investigations were finished by means of communication,individually face to face with introductions in advance.After investigations twice in the experts selected,we adopted an unified calculation model to count up and analyse item by item in classified making use of gross national products(GNP) of related trades of Jilin province.Finally,it was obtained by synthetic analysis and valuation that the total applied benefit of meteorological satellite remote sensing technology in the province is about 530 million yuans(RMB),and the ratio between benefit and cost is 18∶1.