抗旱减灾研究综述及展望

近十余年以来全球范围干旱及其灾害频繁发生,越来越多的学者意识到抗旱减灾研究的重要性,开展了一系列卓有成效的研究。本文主要从干旱监测评估技术、干旱预报技术、旱灾风险评估技术以及旱灾管理战略等4个方面系统阐述了抗旱减灾研究脉络及进展,进而探讨未来发展趋势和主要技术难点,指出干旱监测评估呈现由单指标向多指标综合发展、由单一站点强度分析向强度-时间-范围多个特征变量综合分析发展等趋势,干旱预报呈现由基于统计学方法的干旱预报向基于气陆耦合的旱情预报技术发展的趋势,旱灾风险评估呈现由基于数学方法的评估模型向基于物理机制的评估模型发展、由静态风险评估向静态和动态风险评估相结合发展等趋势。

Research review and perspective of drought mitigation

Drought and its disaster occurs frequently throughout the world in recent decades. More and more researchers are aware of the significance of drought mitigation research, and carry out a series of fruit-ful research. In this paper, the research progress on drought mitigation will be elaborated systematically, mainly focusing on following four aspects, drought assessment, drought forecasting, drought disaster risk assess-ment and drought disaster management strategy. The future trends and main technical difficulties in the drought mitigation research are also put forward. Drought assessment shows tendencies from single-indicator analysis to comprehensive analysis of multi-indicators, and from single intensity analysis to comprehensive analysis of intensity-time-range. In respect of drought forecast technology development, there is a trend from forecast based on statistical methods to forecast based on a coupled atmospheric-hydrological modeling method. The drought risk assessment presents the transitions from evaluation model based on mathematical methods to evaluation model based on physical mechanism, and from static risk assessment to static and dy-namic combined risk assessment.