水文模型的不确定性和异因同果性：认知的回顾

本文藉回顾不确定性和异因同果性的认知过程,管窥水文模型研究中的理念之争。文中概述不确定性的不同来源说,总结有关讨论的正反方观点,分析近期研究的热点和趋势;梳理异因同果性的产生背景、研究进展、主要成果和面临挑战。文末从四源说、水文学边缘化、非主流观点和异因同果性等4个方面,评述认知过程中出现的不同声音,揭示不同研究流派在认识论和方法论上的差异。

Cognition in the uncertainty and equifinality of hydrological model:a systematic review

This paper reviews the cognitive processes of uncertainty and equifinality to understand the idea debates on hydrological models. It briefs various doctrines on uncertainty sources, summarizes the support-ing and opposing views of the discussion and analyzes the hotspots and trends of relevant research work. It also conducts an analysis on the equifinality of hydrological model in terms of academic background, re-search progress, main achievements and challenges faced. In the regards of the four-source doctrines, hy-drology marginalization, minority views and equifinality, it comments on different points of view concerning uncertainty and equifinality and gives some reflections on the epistemology and methodology adopted by dif-ferent research schools.