电力变压器设备故障概率计算方法研究

变压器故障概率计算复杂、应用性强,是工程实践和研究领域中最为关切的问题之一。分析了变压器故障概率计算方法研究现状,并重点提出了融合故障树分析和设备状态量评价的变压器故障概率综合计算方法。基于故障树分析方法获取变压器故障因素及故障树底事件,与对应状态量建立关联后进行评价,并采用模糊综合评判法求取变压器故障状态量表征权重,最终构建出变压器故障概率综合计算公式模型。以实际计算案例验证了所提方法的应用效果。

Research on the Fault Probability Calculation Approach of Power Transformer

As one of the most concerned problems in the engineering practice and the research field,the fault probability calculation of transformer is complex and practical.The paper analyzes the general research status of fault probability calculation.A comprehensive new calculation approach is put forward,by connecting the method fault tree analysis (FTA) and the equipment criteria evaluation.The transformer fault tree and the bottom events are analyzed based on FTA,and then evaluated after correlated with the equipment criteria,and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) method is used to calculate the weights of the criteria indexes before the fault probability formula model is finally established.In terms of an actual case,the application effect of the proposed method is verified.