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海底管道系统失效可能性评价方法研究
引用本文:谢云杰,姚安林,钱浩,汤淼,李果. 海底管道系统失效可能性评价方法研究[J]. 中国海上油气, 2007, 19(2): 134-138
作者姓名:谢云杰  姚安林  钱浩  汤淼  李果
作者单位:1. 西南石油大学
2. 西南油气田分公司输气管理处
3. 西南油气田分公司重庆气矿
摘    要:基于文献[1]所建立的海底管道系统失效故障树,探讨了将主观判断法与模糊数学处理方法相结合的海底管道系统失效可能性评价方法;利用该方法确定了失效故障树分析中各基本事件的发生概率,计算了顶事件的发生概率及各基本事件的概率重要度和临界重要度,并对影响海底管道系统安全可靠性的薄弱环节及影响因素进行了分析。

关 键 词:海底管道系统  失效可能性  评价方法
修稿时间:2006-08-10

Study on evaluating method for failure probability of subsea oil and gas pipelines
Xie Yunjie,Yao Anlin,Qian Hao,Tang Miao,Li Guo. Study on evaluating method for failure probability of subsea oil and gas pipelines[J]. China Offshore Oil and Gas, 2007, 19(2): 134-138
Authors:Xie Yunjie  Yao Anlin  Qian Hao  Tang Miao  Li Guo
Abstract:Based on the fault tree for the subsea oil and gas pipeline established in reference [1],this paper discusses the evaluating method for failure probability of subsea oil and gas pipelines,which integrated the subjective estimation with the fuzzy mathematics.By the evaluating method,the probability,the probability importance and the criticality importance of the basic events are determined,the probability of the top events is calculated,and the weak sections and their influencing factors to the safety and reliability of a subsea oil and gas pipeline system are analyzed.
Keywords:subsea oil and gas pipeline  failure probability  evaluation method
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