从市场供需看我国煤制天然气发展前景

煤制天然气已成为国内投资和研究的热点，但该行业发展不能一哄而上，而需要统筹规划、合理布局，做好总量控制。为此，从分析我国天然气市场中远期需求量入手，综合考虑国产、进口等各类资源因素，预测了我国煤制天然气的市场空间；在剖析煤制天然气项目的特点、能耗、水耗和综合能源利用效率的基础上，结合煤炭资源保有量及其分布对我国煤制天然气产业的发展前景作出分析。结论认为：我国可实现的天然气消费需求量2020年约为3 800×10⁸ m³，2030年有望达到5 200×10⁸ m³；根据各类资源规划和合同签订情况，并考虑勘探开发的不确定性，初步判断我国煤制天然气合理规模2020年约为300×10⁸ m³、2030年约为500×10⁸ m³，峰值达到800×10⁸ m³。最后建议：①国家支持研发和示范，环境上严格准入；②结合我国的国情因地制宜，适度发展；③煤制天然气利用方向上应定位于城市燃气和工业燃料；④煤制天然气项目发展应统筹规划布局。

Prospect of coal based synthetic natural gas (SNG) projects from the perspective of market supply and demand

The coal based synthetic natural gas (SNG) development has become a popular research and investment hotspot in China. However, this industry should be guided and controlled in total quantity by an overall energy plan. Therefore, we analyzed the mid and long term demand amount in the domestic natural gas market. Then, considering all kinds of domestic and imported energy sources, we predicted the market space for SNG. On the basis of analyzing the characteristics, the energy and water consumption, and comprehensive energy efficiency of a SNG project, we discussed the SNG development prospect in terms of the quantity and distribution of the domestic coal resource inventory. The following findings were concluded. First, the natural gas consumption demand in China will be 380 billion m³ (bcm) in 2020 and 520 bcm in 2030. Second, taking into account all types of resources planning and contract signing, and the uncertainty of exploration and development, we preliminarily considered that the quantity of coal gasification will be about 30 bcm in 2020, 50 bcm in 2030, and the maximum will reach up to 100 bcm. On this basis, we presented some suggestions. (1) The SNG related research, development and demonstration projects should be encouraged and the access permission system should be very strict with the environment factor first considered. (2) The SNG projects should be developed moderately and adaptable to different conditions. (3) Urban gas and industrial fuels should be the main purpose of SNG projects. (4) The SNG development should be planned as a whole.