投资和市场在页岩气区块优选中的影响分析

页岩气区块的评价选择涉及技术、经济和市场开发等多种因素,目前尚无一套科学全面而又简便易行的评价模型供相关企业在投标阶段参考使用。为此,采用CRITIC客观权重赋权方法量化分析了投资规模和燃气市场条件等指标对目标区块选择结果的影响,同时结合6个主要的地质资源禀赋条件指标进行了综合分析评价,并构建了涵盖资源禀赋条件、投资规模和燃气市场条件等因素12个主要指标的综合量化优选决策模型。分析发现,与单纯进行资源禀赋条件相比,引入投资规模和燃气市场条件等指标后,选择结果发生了较大变化,同时由于将投资和市场等定性因素采用了定量分析,提高了评价的科学性和客观性,所构建的综合优选决策模型对于非油气勘探开发企业简便易行。以国土资源部第二轮页岩气招标区块为例,所提出的综合优选模型与实际投标竞争热度结果有着很好的符合度,具有较强的适用性,可为相关企业进行后续的页岩气投标区块选择提供参考。

Impacts of investment and market on the optimal selection of shale gas exploration blocks

Evaluation of shale gas exploration block selection involves technical, economic and market factors. However, for lack of such a scientific, easy and practical evaluation model, those relavant companies can not find any reference at their bidding phase. In view of this, the impacts of investment scale and market conditions on shale gas exploration block selection were first quantitatively analyzed based on the CRITIC method, and combined with the 6 main indexes reflecting geological conditions of shale gas resources. Thus, a comprehensive quantitative model was built, considering 12 factors including resources conditions, investment scale, gas market situation, etc., in the decision making process. After the introduction of investment scale and market conditions into this model, a rather great change occurs in the decision making results, meanwhile due to the quantitative analysis, this model helps make a strategic decision more scientific and objective, so with its simple and practical aspects, it becomes a best choice for those non oil operators. In the case of the China′s second round auction of exploration rights for shale gas blocks, this model provided the similar outcomes with the actual competitive bidding results, thus providing practical reference for a bidding enterprise to make a proper decision in the subsequent shale gas bidding.