基于云模型和灰色区间关联的重要电力用户风险群评价

在初步构建供电企业的重要电力用户风险评估指标体系的基础上，为减小由专家群体主观知觉和经验不同所导致评价结果的不确定性以及风险自身的不确定性，首次提出了一种基于云模型和灰色区间关联的风险群评价方法。该方法将专家群体的模糊语言评价值综合成正态云模型，并通过云规则转化为区间值，以灰色区间关联的评价方法来对风险进行综合评价。以供电企业的具体风险评价为例，对比其他评价方法，验证了评价结果的合理性。研究结果表明该方法可更加有效、客观地评价重要电力用户风险。

Risk Group Evaluation Based on Cloud Model and Grey Incidence Decision-Making for Important Power Consumers

In order to reduce uncertainty caused by expert subjective perception and experience level during construction of important power consumer risk evaluation system, a risk group evaluation method based on cloud model and grey incidence decision-making analysis is proposed. The method converts fuzzy subjective evaluation to interval values using cloud rules in normal Cloud model, and then the risk was evaluated by gray incidence decision-making analysis method. Result comparison with other evaluation method in a specific case shows the validity of proposed method. The research showed that the method could evaluate the important power consumer risk more effectively and objectively.