气候变化和人类活动对黄河流域内蒙古段典型支流径流变化的贡献

以黄河流域内蒙古段典型支流旗下营、准格尔站点控制流域为基础,采用累积量斜率变化率比较法,定量分析了径流变化、气候变化和人类活动对径流变化量的贡献。结果表明,径流量多年来呈减少趋势,随降水的增加而增加,随平均气温的升高而减少。径流量2000 s最小,相对1990 s减少了45.67%~58.26%。径流突变点为1981年。1981~2010年与1957~1980年相比,旗下营、准格尔两个水文站点控制流域气候变化对径流减少的贡献率分别为12.80%和23.46%,人类活动对径流减少的贡献率分别为87.20%和76.54%。

Contributions from climate change and human activities to runoff variations of typical tributaries within Inner Mongolia Section of Yellow River Basin

Based on the watersheds controlled by Qixiaying and Jungar Hydrological Stations of the typical tributaries within the Inner Mongolia Section of the Yellow River Basin，the contributions from the runoff variation，climate change and human activities to the runoff variations therein are quantitatively analyzed with the comparison method of the change rate of accumulation slope. The result shows that the runoff has a slowly decreasing trend for many years，which is increased with the increase of precipitation and decreased with the rise of average temperature. The runoff is minimum in 2000s，which is reduced by 45.67%~58.26%，if compared with that in 1990s. The point of abrupt change of the runoff occurs in 1981.Comparing that in 1981~2010 with that in 1957~1980，the contribution rates of the climate changes in the watersheds controlled by both Qixiaying and Jungar Hydrological Stations to the reduction of the runoff are 12.80% and 23.46% respectively，while the contribution rates of the human activities to the reduction of the runoff are 87.20% and 76.54% as well.