基于信息扩散和频率曲线适线的农业旱灾风险评估方法

为克服农业旱灾风险计算中小样本导致的信息不足,以农业因旱受灾率为损失指标,采用信息扩散理论和频率曲线适线方法相结合的方法,构建损失与概率之间的函数关系,建立了旱灾风险评估方法。据此方法定量计算不同旱灾水平年下的农业因旱受灾率,绘制旱灾风险空间分布图。该方法通过优化利用样本模糊信息来弥补小样本导致的信息不足,对小容量样本的概率分布估计有较高的精确度。将该方法用于安徽省农业旱灾风险评估,绘制了安徽省农业旱灾风险图,以便为安徽省抗旱减灾提供参考。

Risk assessment method of agricultural drought disaster based on information diffusion and frequency curve fitting

In order to overcome the information shortage during assessing the agricultural drought risk with small samples， a method of risk assessment of agricultural drought disaster is established herein through constructing the functional relationship between the loss and its probability based on the information diffusion principle integrated with the frequency curve fitting method by taking the drought disaster-afflicted rate of agriculture as the loss index. On the basis of this method， the drought disaster-afflicted rates of agriculture under various target years of drought are quantitatively calculated， while the relevant spatial distribution maps of drought risk are also made. Therefore， the information shortage caused by small samples is fetched up through the optimized utilization of the fuzzy information of the sample， which has a higher accuracy for assessing the probability distribution of the small sized sample.The method is applied to the agricultural drought risk assessment of Anhui Province and the agricultural drought risk map of the province is made as well， so as to provide references for the drought relief and disaster alleviation of Anhui Province.