基于可靠性分析的工程项目群FAHP风险评价模型

针对工程项目群风险评价时评价者主观估计的可靠性问题，在工程项目群风险评价中引入可靠性分析，对风险评价中常用的模糊层次综合评价法进行改进。用评价者的区间估计代替点估计，并根据集值统计原理对评价者给出的估计区间予以量化，得到评价者主观估计的可靠性程度，再将其与模糊层次综合评价法结合应用，从而构建了基于可靠性分析的工程项目群FAHP风险评价模型。将此模型运用于某水电站库周公路网工程项目群，计算结果表明，该工程项目群风险的等级为0.363，属于风险较轻。

FAHP Evaluation Model for Programme Risk Based on Reliability Analysis

To solve the reliability issues of evaluator’s subjective estimates when evaluating programme risk, we introduced reliability analysis into programme risk estimation to improve the FAHP (Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process) evaluation method. We substituted the interval estimation of evaluators with point estimation, and quantified the estimation interval given by the estimator according to the principle of set-valued statistics, thus obtaining the degree of reliability of evaluator’s subjective estimate. On this basis, we built the FAHP risk evaluation model and apply it to the evaluation of a case of road network around a hydropower reservoir. Results showed that the risk level of the programme is 0.363, which belongs to small risk.