一种具有时空特征的工作面涌水量预测新方法

以预测未采工作面的涌水量为目的首次将涌水量预测中具有时间特征的灰色理论GM(1,1)模型和具有空间特征的水文地质比拟法有机结合起来,提出一种具有时间空间特征的计算方法——GM(1,1)-水文地质比拟法,并对未采工作面进行涌水量预测,预测结果为1 371.4m3/h。采用解析法预测的该工作面涌水量值为1 369 m3/h,二者相对误差为0.175%。所提出的计算方法能够用于未采工作面的涌水量预测,为未采工作面设计临时水仓的大小以及确定排水能力提供一种新方法。

A New Water Inflow Prediction Method of Working Face With Spatial and Temporal Characteristics

In order to predict water inflow of an unmining working face,it combined gray theory GM(1,1) model with hydrogeological simulation method in the prediction of water inflow at first time,they had temporal characteristics and spatial characteristics respectively.Then it proposed a calculation method with spatial and temporal characteristics,which was GM(1,1)-hydrogeological simulation method,and it predicted the water inflow for unmining working face,the result was 1371.4 m3/h.The water inflow value of the working face was 1369 m3/h by using analytical prediction,the relative error of them was 0.175%.This method could be used to predict the water inflow of unmining working face,which provided a new method for designing the size of temporary water storage in umining working face and determining the drainage capacity.