| 矿用低压开关柜可靠性增长预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 夏浩瑄,刘子胥,王景芹,杨春稳,王丽.矿用低压开关柜可靠性增长预测[J].工矿自动化,2015,41(2):36-39. |
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| 作者姓名： | 夏浩瑄 刘子胥 王景芹 杨春稳 王丽 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 河北工业大学电磁场和电器可靠性省部共建重点实验室,天津,300130
2. 开滦(集团)有限责任公司,河北唐山,063018 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(51077039);河北省自然科学基金项目(E2012202111) |
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| 摘 要： | 以某矿用低压开关柜为研究对象,研究其在煤矿井下试运行阶段的可靠性增长过程。根据Laplace检验理论和Bayes统计理论,阐明矿用低压开关柜试运行过程中伴随维修的失效次数服从非齐次Poisson过程;在无信息先验下,讨论其平均故障间隔时间和故障强度的Bayes点估计与区间估计;并用试运行阶段获得的实际数据预测出该矿用低压开关柜的平均故障间隔时间,验证Bayes方法的有效性,为及早发现设备运行中的安全隐患提供了依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 低压开关柜 可靠性增长预测 Bayes方法 平均故障间隔时间 |
Reliability growth prediction of mine-used low-voltage switchgear |
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| XIA Haoxuan,LIU Zixu,WANG Jingqin,YANG Chunwen,WANG Li.Reliability growth prediction of mine-used low-voltage switchgear[J].Industry and Automation,2015,41(2):36-39. |
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| Authors: | XIA Haoxuan LIU Zixu WANG Jingqin YANG Chunwen WANG Li |
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| Affiliation: | XIA Haoxuan;LIU Zixu;WANG Jingqin;YANG Chunwen;WANG Li;Province-Ministry Joint Key Laboratory of Electromagnetic Field and Electrical Apparatus Reliability,Hebei University of Technology;Kailuan (Group)Co.,Ltd.; |
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| Abstract: | A mine low-voltage switchgear was taken as object to study its reliability growth process in the commissioning phase in underground coal mine.It was clarified that number of mine-used low-voltage switchgear failure occurrence accompanied with repair obeys non-homogeneous Poisson process according to Laplace hypothesis-testing theory and Bayes theory.The Bayes point and interval estimations for mean time between failures and failure intensity of synchronous time were presented taking the non-information priori distribution,and the actual data obtained in the commissioning phase was used to predict mean time between failures of the mine-used low-voltage switchgear to verify effectiveness of Bayes methods,which provided basis for finding of safety loophole of the switchgear. |
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| Keywords: | low-voltage switchgear reliability growth prediction Bayes method MTBF |
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