基于蒙特卡罗的压缩机组备用方案研究

针对天然气长输管道压缩机组备用方案的设计,提出了一种基于蒙特卡罗法计算设计方法,并给出了详细的设计流程。首先使用蒙特卡罗法对全线机组的失效概率进行计算,得到了同时失效机组数量;其次通过单机故障分析确定失效机组的位置;然后对多种故障工况进行模拟,分析故障工况下的运行参数,最终确定备用方案。并以某管道为例对该方法进行了工程应用。结果表明,一条设有20座压气站的管道仅需设置11台备用机组,即可保证管道在多种故障工况下均能正常运行。研究结果表明,基于蒙特卡罗法的压缩机组备用方法减少了备用压缩机组数量,降低了工程投资和管理成本,具有很好的理论和工程应用价值。

Standby Scheme of Compressor Units Based on Monte Carlo

There is a big challenge in the design of compressor unit standby scheme in long‐distance gas pipelines due to lack of quantitative analysis methods .This paper proposes a design method based on quantitative calculation ,and the detailed design process is given .Firstly ,the unavailability of all units is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation ,and the number of units failing at the same time is obtained .Secondly ,failure units are located by single fault analysis . Thirdly ,fault conditions are simulated .Finally ,the standby scheme is determined by analyzing the operation parameters of different fault conditions .This method is verified by taking a pipeline for an example .The result shows that only 11 standby units are enough for the pipeline which is equipped with 20 compressor stations .The operation security of this pipeline can be guaranteed under various fault conditions .The number of standby units is reduced ,consequent reduction of engineering investment and management cost occurs . As a result , it offers great value in engineering application .