洪水期风险调度方法在石泉水库的应用

以水库风险调度技术中的洪水期风险调度方法为基础,针对石泉水库这一特定对象,从风险识别、风险度量、风险决策、执行决策、效果评估这5项风险调度的基本程序出发,分析了石泉水库实施风险调度的危险因素和风险,提出了量度洪水期风险率的方法,制定了实施洪水期风险调度的策略,给出了执行风险调度的控制手段及评价风险效益的原则。洪水期风险调度方法通过近几年、特别是2004年在大唐石泉水力发电厂的应用,获得了可观的效益。

Application of Risk Operation During Flood Period to Shiquan Reservoir

From the viewpoint of five basic procedures of risk operation,i.e.risk recognition,risk measurement,risk decision,decision implementation and effect evaluation,the risk of application of risk operation during flood period to the Shiquan Reservoir is analyzed,and a risk rate measuring method is proposed.Risk operation strategies are established,and the control means of risk operation and principle of evaluating risk benefits are given.Several years' application of risk operation to the Shiquan Reservoir,especially in 2004,has generated considerable benefits.